Production and demand outlook of the hottest polyv

2022-08-14
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Production and demand outlook of polyvinyl alcohol in 2006

according to the analysis of the operation of polyvinyl alcohol market last year and the growth rate of China's economic development this year, it is expected that the domestic polyvinyl alcohol market is still expected to maintain a stable operation in 2006, and the probability of the decline of price focus is small

compared with many other chemical raw materials, polyvinyl alcohol has a relatively stable trend in recent years, without ups and downs, mainly due to the complex production process, large investment and difficult technology of polyvinyl alcohol. According to statistics, no new factory has been built in China in the past 20 years, and the relatively stable supply scale has kept the market relatively stable

the market trend of polyvinyl alcohol in 2005 can be summarized by the word "placid". In addition to the fact that the manufacturer's quotation was raised to 14500 yuan after the Spring Festival in early 2005 and the price fell rapidly at the end of the year in order to get rid of inventory pressure, the price of polyvinyl alcohol was basically between 13000 and 13600 from April to November 2005, and the market maintained a peaceful atmosphere

generally speaking, the operating characteristics of the polyvinyl alcohol market in 2005 are as follows: first, the market amplitude narrowed, the price structure was olive shaped, and the center of gravity remained stable. Replace the belt on the force measuring piston. In 2005, the fluctuation range of polyvinyl alcohol price was less than 3000 yuan, which was more than 20% narrower than that in 2004. The market price was around 13000 yuan for most of the year, and the annual average price was not different from that in 2004. Second, supply and demand maintained steady growth. The output of polyvinyl alcohol in 2005 is expected to be 480000 tons, an increase of about 7% over 2004; The apparent consumption is about 472000 tons, an increase of about 5% over 2004, and the supply and demand is relatively stable

in 2006, the growth rate of China's economic development will gradually decline, and the macro-economy will continue to be regulated. The ex factory price index of industrial products and the price index of means of production (PPI) have a downward trend, which will have a certain pressure on the polyvinyl alcohol market. However, the author believes that the polyvinyl alcohol market is still expected to maintain a stable operation. The reasons are as follows:

the market demand will continue to grow steadily. Adhesives are still the largest demand market for polyvinyl alcohol. In 2004, the output of polyvinyl acetate (PVAc) emulsion in China during this year's composite exhibition was 560000 tons. According to the prediction that the average annual growth rate from 2004 to 2010 was 12%, the output of PVAc lotion in 2006 will increase to 700000 tons; Although the current output of vinyl acetate ethylene copolymer (VAE) lotion is small, it has a rapid growth rate. According to the experts' expectation that the average annual growth rate from 2004 to 2010 is 15%, the output in 2006 will reach 136000 tons. In 2006, the real estate market will still develop steadily, which will drive the prosperity of the coating market. Polyvinyl alcohol coating has a wide market because of its good performance and low price. There is a large space for the development of the auxiliary market, and various auxiliary agents produced with polyvinyl alcohol are widely used, such as textile pulp widely used in the textile industry, treatment agents in paper manufacturing and printing, additives for cement, soil, cosmetics and plastic products, dispersants for the plastic industry, etc. the demand for polyvinyl alcohol in the auxiliary market will continue to rise. The advantages of the packaging market are prominent. Polyvinyl alcohol film has many unique advantages, which are unmatched by General PE, PP and PVC films, especially its safety and non-toxic advantages in food packaging. With people questioning the insecurity of PVC film, the market demand for polyvinyl alcohol film will gradually increase. The output of vinylon fiber has increased steadily. Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the successful research and development of new functional fibers, the output of vinylon fiber has shown a momentum of growth again, with an average annual growth rate of 10% from 2000 to 2004. At present, the market trend of high strength and high modulus fiber and water-soluble fiber is good, and the output of vinylon fiber will continue to increase in 2006

the supply and demand structure is basically balanced. At present, the production capacity of polyvinyl alcohol in China is 580000 tons/year. In 2004, the operating rate of polyvinyl alcohol was 77%, and in 2005, it was about 82%. 2 it can continue to show its good performance under ultra-high temperature. In 2006, based on the operating rate of 85%, the output will be about 510000 tons. Since 2000, the average annual growth rate of apparent consumption of polyvinyl alcohol in China has been close to 9%. Among them, the growth rate in the first three years was very fast, reaching 11%, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly in the past two years. Based on the growth rate of 4.4% in 2005, the supply and demand will be basically balanced in 2006

cost has support for price. At present, China's polyvinyl alcohol acetylene production line accounts for 87% of the total production capacity, and the main raw materials of this line are natural gas and calcium carbide. As the country implements the price reform of six production factors this year, the natural gas price adjustment policy has been issued, and the electricity price will also face marketization. At the same time, driven by the rise of oil price, the transportation price is on the rise, and the post-processing of data is completed. Therefore, the production cost of polyvinyl alcohol will be further increased. Industry insiders revealed that the current market price of polyvinyl alcohol is only maintained at the cost level. Therefore, although the decline in the price level this year has a certain pressure on the polyvinyl alcohol market, due to the fact that there are few components of the falsely high price of polyvinyl alcohol in 2005, if the international market fluctuation in 2006 is small, the probability of the decline of the price center of polyvinyl alcohol is small

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